Acum exact 20 de ani, pe 24 martie 1999, la ora 21 (ora Bucurestiului), avioanele NATO au inceput bombardarea Iugoslaviei, imediat dupa esecul negocierilor de pace de la Chateau de Rambouillet. Exact atunci s-a prabusit linia pe care politologul american Samuel Phillips Huntington o trasase in 1993 intre Europa de Vest (catolica si protestanta) si Europa de Est (ortodoxa) . Este si ziua in care Occidentul a inceput sa se mute incet spre Est, ingloband Romania. Este, pentru Europa, asa-numitul „point of no-return”, ziua in care razboiul din Kosovo a pus statele in pozitia de a alege neechivoc tabara in care urmau sa se situeze. Si daca multi au sovait (cum a fost cazul Greciei, de exemplu), Romania a ales tabara fara sa clipeasca – scrie Petrișor Peiu, coordonator al Departamentului de Analize Economice al Fundatiei Universitare a Marii Negre, într-o excelentă analiză publicată pe ziare.com și preluată aici cu acceptul autorului.
De la caderea zidului Berlinului si pana in acea zi, chiar daca Huntington a desenat concret celebra sa linie abia in 1993, Washingtonul a trait sub imperiul unui sant adanc care separa Vestul civilizatiei catolice si protestante de Estul ortodox. Acest lucru este usor de inteles daca ne aducem aminte cine era Huntington: nimeni altul decat patriarhul geopoliticii pentru Partidul Democrat; Huntington conducea, din 1963, Centrul pentru Relatii Internationale de la Harvard (Center for International Affairs), era fondatorul revistei Foreign Policy si fusese coordonatorul pentru planificare strategica al Consiliului National de Securitate (Coordinator of Security Planning for the National Security Council) in timpul mandatului Carter. Huntington era adevaratul „guru” pentru strategii internationali ai Administratiei democrate Clinton, iar inceputul mandatului respectivei administratii este marcat de aparitia articolului „The Clash of Civilizations?” (Ciocnirea civilizatiilor) in influenta revista Foreign Affairs. In 1996, Huntington publica si cartea „The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order„, ca replica a la fel de celebrei „Sfarsitul istoriei” a fostului sau student, Francis Fukuyama. Pe scurt, inspiratorul politicii externe a democratilor era convins ca noua paradigma a lumii consta in ciocnirea a opt civilizatii antagonice, iar Europa era menita sa fie impartita de linia de demarcatie intre ortodoxie si lumea catolica si protestanta. Dupa ce ca Huntington formalizase impartirea Europei astfel, politica externa americana era condusa de catre fosta sa colega de Consiliu National de Securitate al administratiei Carter, Madeleine Albright (aceasta din urma era chiar o est-europeana care scapase de Holocaust adapostita de o familie de sarbi!).
Colegele Romaniei de lagar socialist, Polonia, Ungaria, Cehia si Slovacia, erau deja in NATO, iar Romania se chinuia sa convinga Occidentul sa i se deschida poarta. Americanii lui Clinton, tributari unei viziuni rigide despre lume, nu erau capabili de gesturile hotarate si curajoase catre Romania, pe care numai republicanii dovedisera (si o vor mai dovedi apoi) ca erau in stare sa le faca. Astfel incat, pe 24 martie la ora 20:59, Romania traia inca drama de a privi cu jind peste gard la vecinii unguri, care intrasera in NATO cu o armata condusa de ofiteri cu studii la Moscova si cu serviciile de informatii ticsite de „conserve” sovietice.
Situatia in tara nu era deloc incurajatoare: 1999 a fost perigeul unei lungi perioade de cadere economica, ultimul an de scadere a PIB, sindicatele erau in strada cerand incetarea reformelor, mineriada abia se incheiase, iar la doua zile dupa inceperea bombardamentelor, premierul Radu Vasile a facut infarct la birou, motiv pentru presedintele Emil Constantinescu sa incerce sa il debarce cu viclenie. Mai mult, atmosfera in opinia publica era total ostila interventei NATO: gardurile ambasadei iugoslave de pe bulevardul Dorobanti erau pline de flori, in centrul euro-atlantismului de azi, la Cluj Napoca, ziarele apareau zilnic cu indemnul „Orice-ar fi, iubiti Iugoslavia!”, iar Marius Tuca, la Antena 1, facea audiente record rupandu-si camasa in fiecare seara pentru „fratii sarbi”. Ambasadorul rus Valerii Keneakin a vizitat acelasi Cluj pe 26 martie, intampinat de 10.000 de sindicalisti BNS, CSDR, Cartel Alfa si Fratia strigand isteric „Pace pentru sarbi”. Colac peste pupaza, tratatul romano-iugoslav continea si un incomod articol 7: „Nici una dintre partile semnatare nu va permite unui tert stat sa-i foloseasca teritoriul pentru a declansa o agresiune impotriva celeilalte parti„.
Inca de pe 24 martie, americanii si aliatii lor au inceput sa realizeze ca aveau nevoie de Romania (chiar si de Bulgaria) pentru a-l izola pe Milosevici: razboiul impotriva sarbilor era pentru Occident „legitim, dar nu legal”, iar marea necunoscuta a campaniei incepute atunci era: ce va face Kremlinul? Rusia (impreuna cu China) blocasera tentativa americana de a capata girul Consiliului de Securitate, dar avea oare sa apere Belgradul si altfel, mai concret? In plus, romanii traiau inca sub logica „cei mai buni vecini-Marea Neagra si Iugoslavia”, in vreme ce bulgarii nu aveau vreun mare atasament fata de sarbi.
Importanta strategica a Romaniei va creste ametitor dupa 24 martie, pe masura ce bombardamentele NATO nu reuseau sa il infranga pe Milosevici: 38.000 de misiuni de lupta au fost derulate in cele 78 de zile de bombardament, generand pagube imense economiei si armatei iugoslave, dar producand si cateva erori de pomina, culminand cu bombardarea ambasadei Chinei chiar in ziua de Inviere a acelui an. Asa ca transeele adanc sapate de ideologul democratilor americani s-au surpat mai spectaculos decat linia Maginot in 1940, indicand (a cata oara?) ca Dumnezeu isi rade in barba de planurile oamenilor (democratii fiind si ateisti ferventi, de altfel): pe 18 aprilie, NATO a cerut Romaniei accesul nerestrictiv in spatiul aerian al Romaniei, iar pe 22 aprilie, Parlamentul a aprobat respectiva cerere cu 225 voturi pentru, 99 de abtineri si doar 20 voturi impotriva, dupa o sedinta marcata de interventia lui Lazar Comanescu (ambasador la NATO atunci) centrata pe ideea: „ceea ce se da altei tari se va da cu siguranta si Romaniei„, adica pe asigurarea ca Guvernul obtinuse garantii pentru parcursul viitor al tarii. A doua zi, presedintele Emil Constantinescu a plecat la summit-ul NATO de la Washington, din 23-25 aprilie, unde Romania avea sa devina favoritul viitoarei extinderi a aliantei nord-atlantice.
Situatia creata in martie-iunie 1999, ramasa apoi definitiva, avea sa provoace un titlu de referinta in presa ruseasca: „Pentru a intra in Kosovo, soldatii rusi trebuie sa faca inconjurul lumii”, lucru de altfel adeverit atunci cand avioanele rusesti au incercat fara succes sa zboare pe cerul Romaniei in drum spre Kosovo, unde trebuiau sa participe la trupele de mentinere a pacii: zborurile nu s-au facut decat dupa ce Bucurestiul a primit garantii de securitate NATO!
Pana la urma, Milosevici a cedat, pe 11 iunie 1999, dar nu din cauza distrugerilor provocate de bombardamente, ci pentru ca trimisul special al lui Eltin, Viktor Cernomardin, i-a transmis amenintarea ca Rusia ar putea accepta o rezolutie ONU de condamnare a sarbilor. Atunci, Rusia avea o economie injumatatita dupa 10 ani de privatizari „a la Eltin” si depindea decisiv de cele 70 miliarde USD investite de americani acolo. Si totusi, faptul ca rusii au inghitit pe nemestecate povestea din Kosovo si aparitia unei baze americane in fosta provincie iugoslava (Bondstel) a marcat definitiv decaderea Rusiei din postura de putere globala in cea de putere regionala (cantonata la Marea Neagra si la Marea Baltica) . Primavara 1999 a reprezentat si punctul cel mai de jos pentru Kremlin si pentru economia rusa: pe 19 mai, Serghei Stepasin l-a inlocuit pe obositul premier Evgheni Primakov (fost diplomat si fost sef de servicii secrete), pentru ca pe 16 august, Eltin sa il aduca la sefia guvernului pe cel caruia avea sa ii predea puterea totala, enigmaticul petersburghez Vladimir Vladmirovici Putin; pe 31 decembrie, Eltin demisiona, lasand Rusia pe mainile lui Putin. Acesta din urma, obsedat de „incercuirea occidentalilor”, va gasi in episodul Kosovo motivatia razboaielor pe care le poarta si astazi cu vecinii sai ucraineni sau georgieni, pentru a iesi din respectiva „incercuire”…
Daca ar fi sa sintetizam ce impact a avut alegerea pe care Bucurestiul a facut-o pe timpul bombardamentelor din Kosovo, va invit sa urmarim graficul de mai jos:
Graficul prezinta indicatorul PIB/locuitor, in preturi comparabile pentru Croatia, Romania, Serbia si Kosovo. Ei bine, in 1999, Romania a depasit pentru prima oara, dupa 80 de ani, Serbia ca performanta economica; astazi performanta noastra este aproape dubla decat a sarbilor: peste 27.000 USD fata de 15.000 USD! Intre timp, in 2017, Romania a depasit si Croatia, la care inainte si noi si sarbii ne uitam ca la o referinta de dezvoltare. Iar Kosovo a ramas cantonata in saracie, nedepasind trei sferturi din nivelul vecinilor sarbi (abia 11.000 USD pe an pentru fiecare kosovar in preturi comparabile PPP).
Pentru toti cei care, in 1999, trepidau la auzul vocilor grotesti ale aparatorilor „prieteniei romano-iugoslave”, pentru cei care, atunci ca si acum, isi facusera o religie din seara petrecuta holbandu-se la Marius Tuca Show si la eternul sau invitat, deontologul de azi, Cristian Tudor Popescu, pentru cei care conduceau campania de mistificare istorica a prieteniei cu iugoslavii, pentru cei care cereau sa punem in balanta vocatia pro-americana cu sprijinirea principalului aliat al Rusiei din zona, ar fi poate, un gest de decenta sa priveasca acest grafic si sa se intrebe cum ar fi fost astazi viata lor in spatele liniei Huntington.
Petrisor Gabriel Peiu este doctor al Universitatii Politehnica din Bucuresti (1996), a fost consilier al premierului Radu Vasile (1998-1999) si al premierului Adrian Nastase (2001-2002), subsecretar de stat pentru politici economice (2002-2003) si vicepresedinte al Agentiei pentru Investitii Straine (2003-2004). Este coordonator al Departamentului de Analize Economice al Fundatiei Universitare a Marii Negre (FUMN).
http://www.ziare.com/international/serbia/24-martie-ziua-cand-s-a-prabusit-linia-huntington-1554689
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