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Este România pregătită pentru războiul informațional?

”Într-un asemenea moment de criză, carențele instituționale, lipsa de cooperare sau de coordonare și, mai ales, ratarea comunicării strategice riscă să se transforme în veritabile vulnerabilități într-un război niciodată declanșat oficial și în care Articolul 5 este inoperabil. Este România suficient de pregătită pentru războiul care va urma?” – Dan Dungaciu

Directorul Institutului de Ştiinţe Politice şi Relaţii Internaţionale al Academiei Române, prof. Dan Dungaciu, avertizează că ”Norii negrii ai confruntării se adună amenințători. Faza cea mai complicată a bătăliei de acest tip o vom atinge când criza la care asistăm va ajunge la palierul economic, atunci când șocurile vor fi semnificative, tensiunile vor crește, nemulțumirile vor fi greu de gestionat. Atunci, pescarii în ape tulburi, de mai aproape sau de mai departe de hotarele UE sau NATO – unii chiar din interior? – își vor arunca momelile false și vor lansa undițele cu ace ascuțite. Amestecul dintre criza economică și politic a fost de fiecare dată exploziv. Un veritabil Cocktail Molotov”, atrage atenția sociologul și geopoliticianul Dan Dungaciu, într-o analiză publicată pe site-ul Laboratorului pentru Analiza Războiului Informaţional – LARICS. ”Ceea ce vedem astăzi, comparativ cu ce va urma, e un preludiu nesemnificativ”, punctează el.

Dan Dungaciu observă că ”există un bun simț aproape natural al populațiilor care, confruntate cu un inamic nepalpabil, din „altă lume”, nu au cum identifica, urgent, vinovații în „lumea de aici”. De unde și retractilitatea sănătoasă a societăților, indiferent de regimuri, și, pe cale de consecință, o ineficacitate firească a narațiunilor de tip război informațional care accentuează pe aspecte politice sau strategice”. Vor urma, însă, după dimensiunea medicală a crizei, șocul economic și răbufnirea tensiunilor sociale, ce vor reverbera pe palierele politic și strategic.

”Ținta finală va fi „sistemul occidental” – acolo va juca, în principal, China – reprezentat în primul rând de America și de Uniunea Europeană. Iar guvernele naționale pro-europene, câte vor mai fi fiind, vor deveni și ele țintă, prin asta șubrezindu-se, de la firul ierbii, proiecte mai ample de tip UE sau NATO (de asta se va ocupa în principal Rusia, care, probabil, deja culege date de pe teren, unde se află, nu-i așa, ca să ajute statele europene în timp de criză…)”, subliniază sociologul, precizând că strategia predilectă a războiului informațional este să sădească dezamăgirea și neîncrederea pe un teren propice.

Dan Dungaciu atrage atenția asupra faptului că, în această perspectivă, ”a nu avea repere, puncte fixe, narațiuni acreditate, poate fi iresponsabil pentru o țară nervoasă ca a noastră. E nevoie, astăzi mai mult decât oricând, în perspectiva provocărilor care vor veni, de o mai judicioasă aplicare a României față de „războiul informațional” și, implicit față de comunicarea publică aferentă”. Drept urmare, propune următorii pași :

  1. În primul rând, recunoașterea la nivelul oficial cel mai înalt că războiul informațional va deveni – a devenit – o amenințare de securitate care nu (mai) poate fi neglijată. Pe cale de consecință, este nevoie de o mai bună cooperare/coordonare a instituțiilor de profil din România;
  2. Este nevoie de o atitudine activă, nu pasivă și reactivă din partea acestora.  Nu e vorba doar de a face „fact check”-ing sau de a contabiliza fake-news-urile – activități utile, dar insuficiente -, ci de identificare a narațiunilor principale de atac și, cel mai important, a narațiunilor care le pot contracara, echilibrat și eficace, mai ales în perspectiva diseminării acestora în spațiul public.
  3. În această perspectivă, ar trebui implicați în acest efort – prin cooptare sau prin invitație periodică – șefii instituțiilor publice de media (TVR, RRA, AGERPRES), directorii posturilor de televiziune importante, directori de cotidiene, site-uri, agenții, comunicatori publici relevanți.
  4. Cum se poate comunica coerent în spațiul public democratic în perioada de criză? Aflat în SUA în perioada 2000-2001, autorul acestor rânduri a avut prilejul să înțeleagă cum funcționau aceste tipuri de comunicări într-o criză de proporții: directorii principalelor instituții de comunicare publică erau invitați de către statul american și li se puneau pe masă 3-4 cuvinte cheie/teme importante, pentru o perioadă anume, fără ca să existe, evident, indicații de cum să fie dezbătute. Se sugera o tematică, nu o abordare. Dar aceste întâlniri contribuiau evident la o coerență a comunicării publice, oficiale și neoficiale, o focalizare pe temele cu adevărat importante ale publicului și o protecție împotriva alunecării în subiecte irelevante și fără miză reală pentru stat/societate în vreme de criză.
  5. Cel puțin posturile publice (televiziune și radio), vor trebui să pregătească emisiuni special dedicate războiului informațional și comunicării publice.
  6. În perspectivă, pe modelul „niciodată să lași o bună criză să se risipească în zadar”, va trebui să fie puse de pe acum bazele unei proiect educațional care să vizeze problematica războiului informațional („digital media literacy”, fake news etc.) și introducerea educației de acest tip în școlile românești.

Un lucru trebuie să ne fie limpede: nici negarea patologică a realităților, nici cenzura aberantă nu pot fi instrumente utile într-un război informațional. Nici măcar sofisticate centre de analiză izolate în turnurile de fildeș ale competenței lor. Până la urmă, războiul informațional nu este un joc de șah în care se confruntă minți redutabile care încearcă să înțeleagă, cu un pas mai devreme, ce intenționează adversarul, iar cine face primul asta câștigă. Nici vorbă de așa ceva: războiul informațional înseamnă, în primul rând, efortul pe care trebuie să îl faci DUPĂ ce ai înțeles intențiile și strategiile (narațiunile) adversarului: adică să îţi protejezi societatea, publicul, printr-o minimă educație, să îți educi comunicatorii, să fii capabil să vorbești public eficace. Adică să faci comunicare strategică.

Într-un asemenea moment de criză, carențele instituționale, lipsa de cooperare sau de coordonare și, mai ales, ratarea comunicării strategice riscă să se transforme în veritabile vulnerabilități într-un război niciodată declanșat oficial și în care Articolul 5 este inoperabil. Este România suficient de pregătită pentru războiul care va urma?” – se întreabă Dan Dungaciu, membru în Consiliul de Experți LARICS.

H. Blidaru

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